Scott from my "3 Topics" meetup recommended the following Youtube
video of Elizabeth Warren (a Harvard law professor at the time of
the talk, now the newly elected senator from Massachusetts). I was
fascinated by the talk but the charts were all out of focus and
not readable. I bought the book and wrestled some figures out of
the prose and put them up here.
Whenever I hear someone giving a lot of statistics
embedded in prose without really laying them out in a balanced
way, especially when they're being as emotional as she is, I get
suspicious, and I certainly don't agree with Warren's political
agenda (I will never forgive her for the friendly interview she
gave Michael Moore in "Capitalism: A Love Story", though she
wouldn't say the idiotic things he was trying to lead her into
saying). So I felt it was worth the time to get the book and
lay out the statistics in a table.
Note: the video begins with a long-winded,
boring introduction, which is exactly 4 minutes and 45 seconds
long. I recommend you skip it.
Alternate
link to same video on Youtube.
Note that many of the statistics she gives in the video
don't entirely match the statistics from the book. Maybe one was
updated later than the other, or sometimes the years she's comparing
move around (1970 vs 1973, 2000 vs 2003 vs 2006).
Note Warren is talking about the median, not
the average, family. She said the husband's pay had not
increased over that 30 year time span. While median
earnings may have stagnated, the average had not.
I don't feel the numbers really bear Warren
out. It's not
clear to me that the median family is in as much trouble as she
says they are. Also, she tried pretty hard to bury the tax
increase and draw attention away from it -- she isn't the first
liberal I've encountered who doesn't like talking about how
taxes have gone up. Evidently, we are buying a LOT more
government than we were in 1973.
Another factor is that these figures are for the
median family,
but they may not be representative of the typical family who
goes bankrupt.
Here are the figures for household expenditures
for a typical family, comparing 1973 with 2003. All
figures are in inflation-adjusted dollars:
1973 |
2003 |
Increase |
% Increase |
||
Income |
$38,700 |
$67,800 |
$29,100 |
75.19% |
Note the wife didn't work in 1973, and
that the husband's salary didn't significantly change. |
Family Health Insurance |
$1,030 |
$1,650 |
$620 |
60.19% |
|
Mortgage |
$5,310 |
$9,000 |
$3690 |
69.49% |
Warren tries to make it sound like this
is the biggest factor in driving people to bankruptcy, but
looking at the table, child care costs are more
significant, and taxes are vastly more significant. |
Car & Gas |
$5,140 |
$8,000 |
$2,860 |
55.64% |
In 1973 the family usually had 1
car. With two incomes, they need 2 cars. And
people with children now choose bigger cars, mostly for
safety. Cars are now better engineered, so they last
longer and are cheaper to maintain -- the cost per car has
decreased 22-28%. |
Preschool / Day Care |
0 |
$5,320 |
$5,320 |
Infinity |
Mom's not home any more. |
Taxes |
$9,288 |
$22,374 |
$13,086 |
140.89% |
Elizabeth Warren didn't want to draw
attention to this. The wife's income pushed the
average family into a higher tax bracket so they pay a
larger % of their larger income. |
Clothes / Shoes |
$3,571 | $2821 |
-($750) |
-(21%) |
Globalization brought in cheap clothes
from the 3rd world, plus people dress more casually now. |
Food, including eating out |
$6712 |
$5235 |
-($1477) |
-(22%) |
People eat out more, but groceries are
cheaper. (Warren mentioned
only the 22% drop, she didn't give absolute
numbers. I obtained the numbers elsewhere so
they're in red. Possibly she didn't want to
discuss the numbers in detail because they don't really
support her narrative.). |
Total So Far |
$31,051 |
$54,400 |
$23,349 |
75% |
Not including major
appliances, electronics or retirement savings. |
Left Over So Far |
$7,649 |
$13,400 |
$5,751 |
75% |
|
Major Appliances (Laundry, Dishwasher,
etc) |
? |
? |
? |
-(44%) |
Major appliances are better engineered,
last longer, and need less maintenance. |
Home Entertainment / Cable TV /
Computers |
? |
? |
$470 |
? |
Increase is less than what was saved on
major appliances. |
Some examination of the taxes issue. The taxes mentioned above probably don't include payroll taxes. The federal budget alone was $1 trillion in 1973, in inflation adjusted 2005 dollars, while it was about $2.3 trillion in 2003. In 1970 the population about about 203 million, in 2000 it was about 281 million.
So the per-capita federal budget, in 1973, would have been around $4926, in 2003, it would have been around $8185, or a 66% increase. Note that means, for a family of 4, their share of federal taxes alone would have been $19704 in 1973 and $32740 in 2003. The figures in the table (which presumably include state and local taxes) are less, probably for two reasons: 1: the figures in the table don't include payroll tax or sales tax; and 2: due to progressive taxation, the median family pays less than their proportionate share of tax.